[SMM Hot Rolled Daily Review] Increased Steel Mill Maintenance May Push Up Futures Prices?

Published: Aug 19, 2025 17:21

Save

The most-traded HRC futures contract fluctuated rangebound today, closing at 3,416, down 0.38% at the end of the session. Supply side, the impact from maintenance on HRC was 212,000 mt this week, up 64,500 mt WoW, and is expected to be 258,000 mt next week, up 46,000 mt WoW from this week, indicating a slight decrease in HRC supply. Demand side, high temperatures and frequent rain have significantly affected the recovery of end-use demand, with no clear signs of a complete exit from the off-season yet. Raw material, increased maintenance due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the north by month-end may lead to a downward trend in hot metal, weakening short-term cost support. Overall, expectations for reduced supply in finished products may increase. Continued attention should be paid to SMM maintenance data. If production restrictions in the north continue to rise, it could reinforce the "supply reduction" logic, potentially leading to a modest price increase in finished products, but with limited upside. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of selling on rallies.

The most-traded HRC futures contract fluctuated rangebound today, closing at 3,416, down 0.38% at the end of the session. Supply side, the impact from maintenance on HRC this week was 212,000 mt, up 64,500 mt WoW. The expected impact from maintenance next week is 258,000 mt, up 46,000 mt WoW, indicating a slight decrease in HRC supply. Demand side, high temperatures and heavy rainfall significantly affected the recovery of end-use demand, with no clear signs of fully exiting the off-season yet. Raw material, at month-end, there was an increase in maintenance due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the north, potentially leading to a downward trend in hot metal, weakening short-term cost support. Overall, expectations for reduced supply in finished products may increase. Continued attention should be paid to SMM maintenance data. If production restrictions in the north continue to rise, it could strengthen the "supply reduction" logic, potentially leading to a slight increase in finished product prices, but with limited upside. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of selling on rallies.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Feb 6, 2026 18:30

Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums, with coking coal and coke staging a mid-week rise. At the beginning of the week, financial markets experienced sharp fluctuations, dragging down sentiment in the ferrous chain and leading to a pullback in futures. Mid-week, Indonesia's cut to coke production quotas drove coking coal and coke futures to lead the gains, though the impact was more pronounced on thermal coal, while coking coal's rise was largely sentiment-driven and short-lived. In the latter part of the week, finished products continued their seasonal inventory buildup, and support from the raw material side weakened, causing the entire ferrous chain to pull back. In the spot market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, purchasing activity slowed down further, with end-users only making limited, as-needed purchases at low prices.

Feb 6, 2026 18:30

Feb 6, 2026 18:09

MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)

Today, the DCE iron ore futures continued to hit bottom today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 760.5 yuan/mt, down 1.23% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 5–10 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day.

Feb 6, 2026 18:09

Feb 6, 2026 17:41

[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Trading and Inquiries Weakened, Chrome Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday] February 6, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day...

Feb 6, 2026 17:41